Investors and companies should brace for higher commodity prices over the next few weeks in the backdrop of Russian troops attacking Ukraine on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden threatened new sanctions against Russia for an act of aggression against Ukraine. All this, analysts believe, can push prices of key commodities such as crude oil, ammonia, urea, potash, and phosphates higher.
If the central banks act harshly now, the markets will crash and then rally. If they are hesitant, the pain will be prolonged, predicts Debashis Basu.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
The 62 per cent increase in natural gas prices by the Indian government will boost the profitability of upstream companies in the country and support their investment spending, Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday. The price for gas from fields that were assigned by the state to oil companies, mainly Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Ltd (OIL), increased to $2.90 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for October 2021-March 2022, from $1.79 per mmBtu in the previous six months. "Higher gas prices will increase the input cost for key end-consumer sectors, to the extent the price hike is passed on," Fitch said.
The change of heart in the US and India was propelled by the increased threat of China to both countries, explains Ambassador T P Sreenivasan.
Russian traders have started asking for payments in ruble for their exports to India in a move that could derail trade between the two countries which gathered pace after the war in Europe. This is because Indian importers are unable to pay in ruble. The India-Russia trade gathered pace after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February this year. In the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent year on year.
Moody's Investors Service has warned that India, along with the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam are highly vulnerable to volatile food and energy prices in the Asia-Pacific region as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt supplies and raise the cost of agricultural products, especially cereals and vegetable oils, as well as fertilizers and other agricultural inputs. This is so because these countries have a higher weighting of energy and food prices in their consumer price index (CPI) baskets, Moody's said in its report released on Tuesday. The weighting of energy and food in overall Indian CPI stands at over 55 per cent.
The government on Thursday more than doubled the price of natural gas that is used to produce electricity, make fertilisers, turned into CNG and piped to household kitchens for cooking, on the back of a spike in global energy prices. The price of gas produced from old regulated fields, such as the nation's largest gas field of Bassein of ONGC, will rise to a record high of $6.10 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) from the current $2.90 per mmBtu, according to the oil ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). The new price, which is likely to result in a hike in CNG and piped cooking gas rates, will be for six months beginning April 1.
The primary and immediate impact of a depreciating rupee is on the importers who will have to shell out more for the same quantity and price. However, it is a boon for the exporters as they receive more rupees in exchange for dollars. The rupee depreciation has wiped away some of the gains that would have accrued to India from international oil and fuel prices dropping to pre-Ukraine war levels.
No longer a discretion of the tax administrator, the audit of returns filed by taxpayers is now based on a selection by algorithms, notes Tarun Bajaj.
Armed with necessary macro and micro growth drivers, India is on its way to becoming the fastest growing major economy in the world, a finance ministry report said. Rapid vaccination and teeming festivities will push India's ongoing recovery resulting in narrowing of demand-supply mismatches and greater employment opportunities, as per the monthly Economic Review prepared by the ministry.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the recent interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank was not surprising for her but the timing was, asserting that the rising cost of funds will not impact the government's planned infrastructure investments. For the first time since August 2018, RBI had on May 4 delivered a blunt 40 basis points increase in key repo rate to 4.40 per cent, and also hiked the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent after an unscheduled meeting of the rate setting panel, citing increased inflation pressures following the Ukraine war and the resultant spike in crude oil prices. Retail inflation printed at 6.9 per cent in March and the April reading is forecast to top 7.7 per cent.
India imported goods worth $4.23 billion in June from sanctions-hit Russia, up 6.8 times as compared to last year, as demand for shipments of crude oil grew at the fastest pace during the month. Crude oil worth $3.02 billion was imported in June, which translates into a share of 71 per cent of the total imports from Russia, commerce and industry ministry data showed. Similarly, during the April-June quarter, India's imports from Russia were valued at $9.27 billion, up 369 per cent on year.
The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved a revision in the formula for pricing of natural gas and imposed cap or ceiling price to help cut CNG and piped cooking gas prices by up to 10 per cent. Natural gas produced from legacy or old fields, known as APM gas, will now be indexed to the price of imported crude oil instead of benchmarking it to gas prices in four surplus nations such as the US, Canada and Russia, Union I&B Miniser Anurag Thakur told reporters after a meeting of the Cabinet. APM gas will be priced at 10 per cent of the price of basket of crude oil that India imports (Indian basket of crude oil).
An empowered group of ministers headed by Defence Minister A K Antony is to consider an Oil Ministry proposal of abolishing the priority ranking according to which natural gas is first given to urea manufacturing fertiliser plants, then to LPG units, followed by power plants, city gas, steel and refineries.
The wholesale price-based inflation in February rose to 13.11 per cent on hardening of prices of crude oil and non-food items, even though food articles softened. After two months of mild easing, WPI inflation accelerated in February and remained in double digits for the 11th consecutive month, beginning April 2021. WPI inflation last month was 12.96 per cent, while in February last year, it was 4.83 per cent. The rise in crude oil and natural gas prices after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, beginning February 24, has put pressure on the wholesale price index, even though food articles saw softening across categories of vegetables to pulses to protein-rich items.
Experts say while the increasing demand for a ban on Chinese goods might make for good optics, the reality is that India is still heavily dependent on that country in a wide range of industries like electronics, mobile devices, auto, pharma, telecom equipment, and fertilisers.
Changes in global oil and gas rates matter more to India's economy than other major economies because the country imports around 87 per cent of its oil, half of its gas in the form of LNG, and over 60 per cent of its LPG.
The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation said late Thursday that the odour was reported from Powai, Chembur, Mankhurd, Govandi, Chandivali, Andheri and Ghatkopar areas.
The government has capped the trade margin on oxygen concentrators at 70 per cent in order to keep in check the price of the much in demand critical life saving component amid the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The trade margin has been capped at 70 per cent on price to distributor level on oxygen concentrators. In an official release, the chemicals and fertilisers ministry said the decision has been taken in view of the extraordinary circumstances arising due to the pandemic which has resulted in volatility in Maximum Retail Prices (MRP) of oxygen concentrators.
An empowered group of ministers headed by Defence Minister A K Antony is to consider an Oil Ministry proposal of abolishing the priority ranking later in the day, according to which natural gas is first given to urea manufacturing fertiliser plants, then to LPG units, followed by power plants, city gas, steel and refineries.
Don't be surprised if growth in the second half of the financial year drops below 4%, which is where it was in the year before the pandemic, warns T N Ninan.
A 6-7 million tonnes shortfall in rice production due to a fall in paddy sowing area is likely to keep rice prices at elevated levels, adding to the inflationary pressure that the slowing economy is already grappling with. Elevated food prices, including that of cereals, had led to retail inflation reversing a three-month declining trend, to touch 7 per cent in August. Similarly, the wholesale price inflation, which declined to 11-month low, also showed price pressures from cereals resulting from wheat output being impacted by severe heat waves in some parts of the country.
Coming Wednesday, Finance Minister (FM) Nirmala Sitharaman will present the 2023 Union Budget - the last full Budget ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While India exited 2022 as a relatively bright spot in the global economy, the FM will endeavour to present a Budget that insulates India's economy against global headwinds and recession in advanced economies, while sticking to the path of fiscal consolidation. In this, she is being helped by her core team of trusted advisors.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray announced a statewide curfew for 15 days from 8 am on April 14 to contain the rapid spread of the coronavirus in its second wave. With Section 144 being imposed across the state, Thackeray essential services have been exempted from the restrictions. The curfew will be in place till 7 am on May 1.
'Aquaponics can effectively cushion the impact of a calamity like COVID.'
The 1,967 MW plant has not been operating since August because of stoppage of natural gas supplies from domestic fields.
Will Empire strike back to prevent a game changing election result, asks T P Sreenivasan.
The employment situation remains dire. Whatever can be done to promote greater low-skill employment should be pursued aggressively, advises former chief economic adviser Shankar Acharya.
The government should bring natural gas under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime to realise Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision for a gas-based economy and raising the share of the environment-friendly fuel in India's energy basket, an industry body that represents the likes of Reliance Industries as well as state-owned firms, has said. Natural gas is currently outside the ambit of GST, and existing legacy taxes -- central excise duty, state VAT, central sales tax -- continue to be applicable on the fuel. In its pre-Budget memorandum to the finance ministry, Federation of Indian Petroleum Industry (FIPI), which boasts of members from across the oil and gas spectrum, also demanded rationalisation of GST on transportation of natural gas through pipeline as well as on re-gasification of imported LNG to help bring down cost of the environment friendly fuel.
Colombo seems to be veering to the middle path between China and the US on global matters, but in regional matters of strategic security, it is increasingly identifying with India, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
Natural Gas production from KG-D6 block has dropped to below 20 million standard cubic metres a day this week, from over 63 mmscmd peak output achieved in August 2010.
'For the common man, the economic conditions are not going to get better.'
Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), the operator of the KG-D6 gas block, has told the government it cannot comply with its latest directive on prioritising gas supply.
Even as there is strong public sentiment against reopening Sterlite's copper plant in Tamil Nadu come reports that four farmers groups have come out in support of the factory.
Prices have continued to move up in Delhi's markets, wholesale and retail, on supply worries and spoilage due to record cold weather.
In the last one week several companies have had to face the hurdle of making a distinction between what's essential and what's not. To help them the government has now clarified that grocery would include hygiene products such as hand wash, soaps, disinfectants, body wash, shampoo, surface cleaners, detergents, tissue paper, toothpaste, oral care, sanitary pads, diapers, chargers and battery cells, etc.
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On June 27, the Cabinet approved a new formula that uses weighted average of the price of LNG into India and average price at major gas hubs.
Reliance Industries has made drastic changes in gas supply contracts that will jack up its KG-D6 gas price by 10 per cent over and above the new rate of $8.3 coming into effect from next month.
As the economic crisis in Sri Lanka - the world's largest exporter of orthodox tea - continues to rage across the island nation, tea producers in India look to cash in on the opportunity to seize the market. The country's largest tea growing company, McLeod Russel India, expects orders to come in from July. "A huge opportunity is coming up for everyone in India. "McLeod Russel is well placed because we have the capacity for orthodox tea," said Azam Monem, director, McLeod Russel. About 10 per cent of McLeod's production is orthodox tea.
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